Spain has emerged from one of the biggest economic crises that are remembered. In 2008, the prick of the housing bubble and the slipstream of the international financial crisis caused a tremendous crack in our economy that took hundreds of thousands of jobs ahead. Its effects continue to be noticed today in thousands of homes. However, the good news is that the economic recovery is already underway and Spain will be the locomotive of growth in this new era.
Why will Spain be the locomotive of growth?
The Spanish Gross Domestic Product (GDP), which represents the total production of goods and services of our economy, sank precipitously during the years of crisis. However, today it has returned to positive values. In addition, the economic forecasts that the different agencies publish about our country point in only one direction: the economic growth will continue during the next years and, although it will go less, Spain will be the locomotive of growth of Europe.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has been the last agency to make public its growth forecasts. In these notes that the Spanish GDP will grow by 2.6% in 2017 and a little less the following year, 2.1%, with ours being the advanced economy that will advance the most in these two years. The problem, however, will continue to be the high unemployment rate, which will end at 17.7% this year and 16.6% in 2018.
The Bank of Spain also recently published its economic forecasts for Spain. In his report estimates that GDP will grow by 2.7% in 2017, 2.3% in 2018 and 2.1% in 2019. In turn, the unemployment rate will be 16.7% this year, 15.4% in 2018 and 13.9% in 2019. As we can see, these are slightly more optimistic forecasts than those of the IMF.
A little before the IMF and the Bank of Spain, the Spanish Confederation of Business Organizations (CEOE) published its Quarterly Report on the Spanish economy, in which it indicated that Spain would grow 2.5% this year and 2.3% in 2018. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate will fall to 17.5% in 2017 and to 15.8% on average in 2018.
Important is also the forecasts of the prestigious Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), which coincide with the CEOE in that the GDP growth rate will be 2.5% in 2017 and 2.2% per year next, a tenth worse. Unemployment will be reduced to 17.5% this year and up to 16.1% next year.
BBVA also recently published its economic estimates in its Situation Spain report. These are the most optimistic among those published to date. He points out that we will grow 3% in 2017 and 2.7% in 2018. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate will continue to fall and will stand at 15.6% by the end of 2018.
How long will Spain continue to grow?
In general, very similar forecasts and they all go in the same direction: economic growth will continue over the next few years but will go down. Let’s not forget that in 2016 we grew at a rate of 3.2%. Although we are the locomotive of growth in Europe, our political leaders can not relax and must continue with the path of reforms that allow our economy to continue growing and reducing its huge unemployment rate.